CHICAGO – April 1, 2025 – U.S. office supplies sales revenue across physical and digital retail channels totaled $11.5B in 2024, representing a decline of 5% compared to a year ago, as total unit demand fell 2%. With persistent inflation impacting consumer spending on retail goods, the outlook for 2025 remains challenged but increasingly stable with a projected 2% decline in 2025 and expected industry flattening through 2027, according to the latest Future of Office Supplies* report from Circana, LLC.
Consumers remained price-conscious in 2024, prioritizing essential product categories, seeking out discounts, and increasingly choosing private label brands. At the retail level, sales continued to migrate online with e-Commerce accounting for 24% of total office supplies revenue, an increase over 2023. Meanwhile, traditional brick-and-mortar sales softened, declining 6%, reinforcing the need for retailers and brands to adjust to evolving shopping behaviors.
“The market faced headwinds in 2024, and 2025 has already presented a new set of challenges for consumers. We expect consumers to remain value-focused in their shopping behaviors this year, but brands that optimize pricing, promotions, and assortment will be better positioned as the market stabilizes.”
Ben Arnold – Industry Advisor, Office Supplies at Circana
Although most categories saw declines in 2024, certain segments like self-stick notes, encased pencils, and color markers are expected to show modest growth in 2025. The back-to-school season will remain a key sales period, with early promotions and discount strategies playing a crucial role in capturing demand. Circana estimates that 35% of total office supplies dollars in 2025 will be spent during the third-quarter back-to-school period and that revenue will decline less than 2% compared to Q3 2024.
Arnold added, “The office supplies industry is adjusting to long-term shifts in how and where people work, learn, and create. Retailers and manufacturers that take a proactive approach to digital transformation and consumer engagement, with an eye on maximizing the critical back-to-school shopping season, will be best positioned for success.”
*This analysis focuses on the consumer and retail office supplies market, excluding the janitorial/breakroom and storage categories, which tend to behave differently due to their more institutional nature. Circana’s reported forecast numbers generally omit these categories unless specifically noted.
