Consumers are still waiting to get into peak holiday shopping mode, despite early Black Friday promotions
CHICAGO, November 21, 2024 — Retail distraction materialized in discretionary spending the week before the U.S. presidential election and remained in the week ending November 9, 2024, resulting in two consecutive weeks of 9% revenue declines. These early November declines marked the weakest general merchandise sales performance in the last 52 weeks and spanned almost the full list of industries tracked, according to Circana™, a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. Prior to this disruption, discretionary general merchandise performance in October had remained consistent with recent performance.
“Now that some of the election uncertainty has passed, consumers can focus on holiday shopping, but that comes with another set of distractions,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “While pent-up demand will help to fuel some post-election rebound in the coming weeks, consumers now face the distraction of early and endless promotions that will dilute their focus and alter the pace of holiday shopping.”
Despite overall negative discretionary performance, promotional activity lifted some of the distraction fog for prestige beauty the week ending November 9, 2024. Promotion-driven growth signals that consumers are willing to shop when presented with deals. As revealed in Circana’s annual Holiday Purchase Intentions study, consumers identified Black Friday as the time when they thought they would get the best deals this holiday shopping season. But, despite the early introduction of the Black Friday deals consumers have been waiting for, general merchandise unit demand during the week ending November 16, 2024 remains lackluster at 3% below last year’s results, with a 4% decline in sales revenue.
Circana notes that while there will be some similarities to last year, this holiday shopping season will look and feel different. The differences will relate to the pace of consumers’ response to deals and what’s behind their response. Some will act on early deals for fear that the item they want won’t be available if they wait. Others will be committed to waiting as long as possible for the best deal. The unique deal and value mindset of today’s consumer poses implications for this holiday season’s outcome and how it is measured.
“The competition for the consumer’s attention keeps expanding. Toys now compete with beauty, tangible gifts compete with experiences, and top shopping days compete with other activities, like football, on Black Friday,” added Cohen. “Not only do marketers need to break through the distraction and capture consumers’ attention with the best deals, but they also need to convince them of the value they are getting, and then hold to it.”
