Jonna Parker, Team Lead, Fresh Foods Group
Roiled by the economy and inflation, shoppers still want value, excitement, convenience, international flavors, and all the gourmet accessories needed to throw a party with flair. Based on what the Circana team saw at this year’s International Dairy Deli Bakery Association (IDDBA) show in Houston, retailers and manufacturers are more than capable of helping shoppers do just that. Through conversations with over 1,000 vendors — and almost as many tastings — we uncovered the top trends. Here’s a rundown of our biggest takeaways.
Beyond crudités
One of the biggest trends we saw was items focused on entertaining and special occasions. Our March National Eating Trends® data shows consumers average 18 special occasions per year, for a total of six billion occasions annually! That means people are celebrating a lot more than just holidays.
The deli entertaining aisle, carrying products like dips and sauces, spreads, and pickles/relish, was up 3.9% in dollar sales for the 52 weeks ending in June, while dollar sales of trays were up 10.7%. At IDDBA, products focused on entertaining transcended departments, eating occasions (from brunch to dinner and everything in between), and preparations. For example, we saw refrigerated Belgian waffle trays with waffles and strawberries sold together for convenient assembly; heat-and-eat chicken-and-waffle kits; and take-and-bake pizza kits with ingredients like dough, precooked sausage, cheese, and sauce.
Snacking shines
It’s clear from our data and from the show that snacking is having a moment. 46% of consumers have three-plus snacks per day, and snacking between meal occasions is up nine points from 2020. Recently, our Snacking Survey found 50% of consumers said that when they’re on the go, they snack instead of stopping for a meal.
Snack manufacturers have responded with products for these consumers in a major way, such as take-and-bake dips with flavors like poutine and crab rangoon. We saw numerous types of individually wrapped, mini cheeses, in varieties like brie, asiago, provolone, fontina, and parmesan. We also found shelf-stable snack meats, beyond the typical jerkies, such as Dietz and Watson’s Dietz Nuts.
Morning glory
Of the breakfast, lunch, and dinner occasions, our February National Eating Trends® data shows breakfast had the most meal occasions sourced from home at 87%. Even though most breakfast occasions are at home, that doesn’t mean consumers don’t want or need something during their morning commute. This is where the perimeter can shine. Doughnuts have been performing well year over year with perimeter assorted and multipack doughnuts up 4.5% in units compared to a year ago in the 52 weeks ending in June. Our data shows doughnut consumption is shifting to main meals like breakfast and lunch.
Breakfast continues to give manufacturers an opportunity to have some fun. This much was evident in our New Product Pacesetters innovation study, which identified numerous successfully launched morning solutions across aisles in the past year. The same was true at IDDBA. For example, one fun new entry was muffin tops thin enough to fit into a toaster. Toasting one of these and topping it with butter is the perfect easy breakfast — and it’s a great way to bring some excitement to the perimeter for breakfast or snacking occasions. It also mimics a popular warmed treat previously found in coffee shops.
Yogurt drinks are another inherently portable breakfast option performing well at retail, growing 5.6% in units compared to a year ago in the 52 weeks ending in June. We saw several examples of new yogurt and kefir drinks at IDDBA.
Bridging generational divides
Like many fresh categories, dairy, deli, and bakery shoppers skew older. Specifically, deli and perimeter bakery over-index in boomers and seniors. At the IDDBA show, we saw a handful of manufacturers targeting Hispanic buyers with Hispanic-branded cheeses and meats, as well as beautifully curated Hispanic dessert cases. This is right on trend for younger generations, who are more diverse and more likely to try new foods compared to older generations. In our Shopper Loyalty Panel, we see Gen Z shoppers are more likely to buy Hispanic pastries and deli Hispanic specialty cheeses compared to other generations.
Economics and innovation
The IDDBA showed clear signs that manufacturers are innovating in response to consumer concerns about inflation. As of May 2024, our Shopper Survey data shows 93% of shoppers continue to be concerned about food cost inflation. One way consumers have changed shopping behaviors in response to inflation is by making fewer stock up grocery trips as they are more concerned about food waste. We found manufacturers addressing this shift through packaging innovation. One example was packaged lunchmeat with two fresh sealed compartments, which provides a way to keep lunchmeat fresher for longer. The deli area is also helping to give budget-conscious shoppers a way to experience restaurant-style meals in their home, thanks to premade items like paella and Indian entrées.
For more insights, reach out to us at: freshfoods@circana.com
For more IDDBA 2024 takeaways, check out the Growth Insights podcast episode dedicated to the show.
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